Simulated Validation and Prediction of Land Use under Multiple Scenarios in Daxing District, Beijing, China, Based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model

Land-use changes in urban fringe areas are dramatic, and modelling predicting land-use under different scenarios can provide a basis for development regulation control. As an important part of Beijing’s fringe, Daxing District is representative its changes. Taking the Beijing as example, this study selected two periods data 2008 2018 predicted 2028 2038 using GeoSOS-FLUS model (geographical simulation optimisation system–future simulation) Markov chain model, based on validation land use from to 2018. Meanwhile, three types scenario simulations were carried out. The results future predictions show that: (1) natural scenario, area construction grassland gradually increased, cultivated land, woodland water bodies decreased; (2) protection remained largely unchanged, decreased before increasing, expansion was curbed, increased slowly; (3) ecological control grassland, showed slowly increasing trends, with small amount being converted land. These indicate that setting limit certain extent. This future.